Ladakh is a unique place in many ways. You feel freezing winds and burning sunlight at the same time because the altitude is very high. The night temperature during winter reaches -40 degrees Celsius. Most of its part remains inaccessible due to the closure of roads during winters and logistics supply becomes a nightmare. The above description was necessary to understand the environment in which the current standoff between India and China is taking place. It has been five months since the current standoff started in Ladakh and it does not look getting any better after the recent comments of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of China claiming that the Union Territory of Ladakh was established illegally by India.
Strategic thinkers, defense editors, journalists, and other people have offered innumerable reasons for the recent flare-up at the border which is unprecedented since last shots were fired in the way back in 1987 at Sumdorong Chu, Arunachal Pradesh. Few examples-Revocation of Article 370, New DSBO road, cozying up with the US, and other things which do not sound plausible. Here I put forward my view on China‘s ultimate motive and attempt to explain it in two main points which are inevitably linked to the waters of Indus in the north and Brahmaputra in the east.
- To begin with, let me quote former premier of China Mr. Wen Jiabao-’Water shortages threatens the very survival of the Chinese nation.’ Many of the major rivers of China that feed its majority of the population in the South East have partially dried and become heavily polluted due to excessive discharge of industry affluents. In the year 2018, Beijing experienced one of the worst droughts after a long time. Xi also plans to ramp up the infrastructure in less developed areas like Northern parts of the country which will only further exacerbate an already pending crisis. The famous Yellow River fails to even reach the sea these days. According to a report by Greenpeace, glaciers originating in Tibet will reach their peak, and thus water consumption will surpass the amount of water available.
- The second and most important point is one of Xi’s most important agendas i.e. winning the digital race- ‘Vision 2025.’ The plan aims to make China from a manufacturer of low-cost products to a producer of high-end technology-driven products. This transformation will require a huge amount of water which cannot be provided by the four major rivers of China – The Yellow River, The Yangtze River, Heilongjiang River, The Huaihe River, and The Yarlung Zangbo River. The recent decision of the US to ban the shipment of semiconductors to China will definitely act as a big jolt for China‘s ambitious plan of 2025. What will Xi do now? Is he ready to go for a war with India in order to secure waters of Indus in the north claiming Ladakh and Brahmaputra in the east using the pretext of Arunachal Pradesh is the inalienable part of Southern Tibet? To be honest, his options are limited as becoming the next superpower is the core agenda and he is ready to take the gamble of engaging India in the conflict. Pakistan will act as a force multiplier by engaging India in Kashmir. The time is also ripe as he faces inner turmoil in the CCP and he needs to show his might in order to sustain himself for the coming years. What he will do in the coming months of October and early November and how India reacts with its military power will eventually decide the fate of the ‘New World Order.’
What will Xi do now? Is he ready to go to war with India in order to secure waters of Indus in the north claiming Ladakh and Brahmaputra in the east, using the pretext of Arunachal Pradesh as an inalienable part of Southern Tibet? To be honest, his options are limited as becoming the next superpower is the core agenda and he is ready to take the gamble of engaging India in the conflict. Pakistan will act as a force multiplier by engaging India in Kashmir. The time is also ripe as he faces inner turmoil in the CCP and he needs to show his might in order to sustain himself for the coming years. What he will do in the coming months of October and early November and how India reacts with its military power will eventually decide the fate of the ‘New World Order.’