Recently, China carried out a large air drill directly aimed at Taiwan. It was reported that 8 Chinese nuclear-capable bombers and 4 J16 fighter jets were intercepted by Taiwan. Many commentators have speculated the possibility of China testing the will of the new Biden Administration and its response in the event of an invasion by China. This also comes at a time when India is facing China in Ladakh and new activities have been reported in Nakula.
2021 is a significant year for the Chinese in many ways. In June this year, the Chinese Communist Party will complete 100 years. This year will also be celebrated as the “National Rejuvenation Year.” As noted by a well-known and respected China analyst Jayadev Ranade, the program of National Rejuvenation also includes recovery of lost territories. China claims the whole of Arunachal Pradesh and also has its eyes on Ladakh for geopolitical resources (mainly waters of Indus).
Assuming the Chinese try to do something for occupying the whole of Taiwan, it will heighten tensions to such an extent that countries like Japan and South East Nations will not hesitate to bring the US into action in the region. The possibility of an attack on Taiwan escalating into a bigger conflict cannot be ruled out. If China chooses to attack India for the physical occupation of territory, it brings in a lot of benefits. First, China believes that it is necessary to humiliate India and teach them a lesson for becoming a de facto ally of the US. Secondly, China is in dire need of freshwaters and the Indus provides that. It may have gone unnoticed but it was for the first time in history that China had to import rice from India to meet the requirements of the country. Water is also required for its telecom industry and the building of semi-micro conductors. Lastly, President Xi Jinping has to show a bold personality and continue his helm by displaying victory to the country and most importantly to the Communist Party of China. It will not be wrong to say that the plan of invading India has always been on the mind of the Chinese. For example, look at the below tweet-
The above-depicted tweet clearly shows that China has been making plans for invading the territory at an opportune time. The Helen Shan Area in Mongolia was specifically chosen by the Chinese to covertly train PLA armed forces for attacking Ladakh. Chinese have been training here since 2006. As reported by the Eaterlink, this region closely corresponds with the terrain of Ladakh. Doklam in 2017 was aimed at testing India’s response to provocation by the Chinese. The current standoff which started in mid-April 2020 has been smartly orchestrated by the Chinese to develop further plans for attacking India. After seeing the formation of Indian Armed forces (including airforce and army) throughout the Indo-China border, the Chinese would have assessed weaknesses and strong points of India’s capability. The possibility of cyberwar targeting our satellites and telecom networks to cripple our defenses in wake of war cannot be ruled out.
Recent drills aimed at Taiwan were intentionally carried out to deflect attention away from its activity at Ladakh borders and the Eastern front. India must stay alert for the upcoming months as China will look out at possible ways to attack and humiliate us.